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Moderate population growth forecast for Alabama by 2040, many counties declining


SYLACAUGA, Ala. – The University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research has released a report estimating the state’s population changes by county through 2040.

Although overall population is expected to grow by 11.3%, Talladega County’s may drop by 5.6% or 6,849 people, yet the county fares better than 27 others, with neighboring Coosa forecast to lose 3,016 residents (26.1%), Clay to lose 1,790 (12.8%), Tallapoosa to lose 3,174 (7.6%), and Calhoun to lose 6,849 (5.9%).

According to the report, neighboring Shelby County will experience the state’s fourth largest growth rate at 41.7%, adding 81,288 people, while Jefferson County, the state’s most populous county and home to the largest city, will experience practically no growth at only 1.4%. Shelby’s good news could bode well for adjacent counties providing employment and commercial opportunities.

The county expexted to grow the most: Baldwin, by 65.1%. The biggest loser: Lowndes, by 29.7%.

Projections were driven by Census changes between 2000-2010 and 2015 population estimates. Overall, population growth is trending lower due to declining birth rates, net migration, and aging baby boomers.

The Center for Business and Economic Research at the Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration is the lead agency of the Census Bureau’s State Data Center program.

Lee Perryman for | © 2017, City Media LLC. All Rights Reserved.

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